As the wall of worry dissipates, Equities should continue to rise
During October, following a Summer of high level consolidation, Equity markets broke out to the upside once again. Since April, they had...
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jfo496
Oct 1, 2019
Defensive assets are topping out, for now
The last 12 months have seen an aggressive rally on defensive assets, fueled by many geopolitical risks (Trade War, Iran, US Impeachment...
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jfo496
Sep 1, 2019
Still climbing a wall of worry
Market tops are usually marked by Euphoria and “this time is different” type of assertations. To be fair, for now, this year has seen...
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jfo496
Jun 3, 2019
Equity markets and yields could find support in June, and move up into July
Late last month we argued that risk assets were ripe for a correction, that the breadth of the rally was fading, and that bellwether...
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jfo496
May 2, 2019
The Yen and the Copper to Gold ratio may be signaling a short market correction
Since rates bottomed in mid-2016, the Dollar has been pro-cyclical. This was especially true during H2 2016, and during most of 2018....
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jfo496
May 1, 2019
The US Dollar and the USD-Euro interest rate differential
Since US long term yields started to correct down last October, the US Dollar has stalled. US long term yields are more volatile than.......
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jfo496
Apr 1, 2019
Defensive assets should see one last push higher into late April
During March, an ultra-Dovish FED sent yields spiraling lower, and while equities distributed at high levels, Treasuries were indeed the...
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jfo496
Feb 1, 2019
An environment of residual risk
While Defensive Assets such as Gold and Treasuries are breaking out to the upside, since Christmas Eve, Equities have also been...
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jfo496
Nov 1, 2018
Equity Markets — "Passive" Crisis!
With the recent market correction, BlackRock, the world’s largest ETF provider and a bellwether for passive investment has broken through...
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jfo496
Oct 1, 2018
Gold is a monetary phenomenon
Last month we suggested that by late September, risk assets should move lower into November. We believe this is still the case, and that...
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jfo496
Sep 3, 2018
The Flight to US Treasuries Safety is accelerating – a telling graph
We note that currently one graph stands out as a very precise indicator of risk-on and risk-off dynamics. Indeed, after having been bid...
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jfo496
Aug 1, 2018
Focus on Defensive sectors
In our early June contribution, we warned of turning to negative too quickly. At the time, we expected a rally between mid June and late...
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jfo496
Jun 1, 2018
From early/mid June, Equity markets should push up one last time into the Summer!
The environment has been challenging for equity markets since the beginning of the year. Very few indeed have for now fully recovered...
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jfo496
May 3, 2018
Late cycle dynamics – one last push up on risk assets, and then reduce your risk
While Yields and Commodities are accelerating up, Equities are struggling. Such cross asset developments, especially following the recent...
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jfo496
May 1, 2018
Flight to quality – Where’s the best place to hide?
One thing we can say about the early February financial assets sell-off is that it was difficult to find any place to hide. Equities...
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jfo496
Apr 2, 2018
“Buying the Dip” on Equity Indexes, still a risky proposition at least until late April
Equity markets have just started Q2 with a new sell-off, on the back of new tariffs being slapped up on a number of US Food and Commodity...
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jfo496
Feb 2, 2018
Gold looks strong towards year-end, yet wait for the Dip, rather than buy the Breakout
Last month, we outlined that the U.S. Dollar was getting ready to bounce, probably from mid/late January. Although, the sell-off has...
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jfo496
Jan 8, 2018
The Dollar is getting ready to bounce, European markets could outperform in Q1 2018
In whishing you our best wishes for 2018, we will start our contributions this year with the US Dollar and its influence on the...
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jfo496
Dec 4, 2017
Gold could bounce late December, but should remain under pressure until late Q1 2018
Gold has taken a bit of a dive over the last few weeks and more generally since September. In our view, it is suffering from the bounce...
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jfo496
Nov 1, 2017
Dollar/Yen should consolidate into November and then accelerate up again towards 2018
From its lows early September, the Dollar/Yen has followed risk assets and interest rates up in their recent rebounds. This positive...
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jfo496
Oct 4, 2017
Oil should retrace during October, before it resumes its uptrend towards year-end
Following their retracement down from the Spring, China and Industrial metals have been moving up since May. They have led Oil, which has...
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jfo496
Oct 4, 2017
Expect a rebound on equities in September and further weakness into October
The current August market correction is probably coming to an end over the next week or so. We see it as a potential by the dips...
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jfo496
Aug 2, 2017
Risk Assets could see a Dip in August and it should be bought
We expect some consolidation into August for Equities. Indeed, Risk/Reward seems momentarily stretched on the S&P500 Index, while the...
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jfo496
Jul 3, 2017
Summer rotation expected as Growth and Defensives handover to Cyclicals and Financials
Since reflation trades topped out between December and February, Cyclical sectors and Financials have underperformed. During this...
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